How To Keep New Zealand Rugby Sustainable

Otago's recent demise along with the near-misses with Southland, Waikato and Canterbury in recent times is the clearest sign that the current 2-tier professional rugby system in New Zealand is not working and is eventually going to kill the game.

This is how I believe the game in New Zealand should be run from bottom to top, i.e. club/community rugby all the way to international level. I'm copying the hierachy used in the USA for American football which has proven to be highly successful

Clubs/Schools
- Managed by provincial unions
- Fully amateur
- Broadcasting rights for games should be open to negotiation; with negotiations fully encouraged

FYI, High school football games in Texas are one of the most watched shows in the USA resulting in the hit drama, Friday Night Lights.

Provincial Unions, i.e. NPC
- Become more amateur based
- Only coaching staff and backroom staff paid
- All revenue goes straight to the provincial unions for funding of grassroots rugby
- Introduce transfer fees - only form of revenue in regards to players
- Super rugby players who aren't selected for the All Blacks to play in NPC - they will be paid by Super rugby franchises (let's just say playing NPC rugby is beneficial for the Super rugby franchise)
- Revert to mainly afternoon games, with feature games to be shown in late evening, at night.
- Return to pre-2006 structure - three divisions instead of two separate competitions, i.e. ITM Cup and Heartland Championship

FYI, College football in the USA is far more popular than the NFL despite being fully amateur. All TV revenue goes straight to the colleges, none to the players.

Super Rugby Franchises 
- Fully professional, i.e. the only way to play rugby professionally in New Zealand
- Privately owned entities separate from the NZRU and provincial unions, i.e. franchises like in the USA
- Selection exclusively from NPC clubs but not strictly from the franchise region so that New Zealand's best players are all picked up and become professional
- Expansion of squads to 40 players, resulting in the abolishment of wider training squads. This will ensure players that should be kept in New Zealand are contracted - yes we will miss out on some players who end up taking contracts overseas but then again, we should really be left with the cream of the crop.
- Contracts to start from 1 November and end 31 October thereby covering player's pre-season training, regular season and participation in the NPC regardless of playing time.

In effect, Super Rugby becomes the NFL of New Zealand rugby.

National Representation - All Blacks, NZ Maori, Sevens, Junior All Blacks
- NZRU pays "top up" salaries to players selected for national duty, i.e. All Blacks, NZ Maori, Sevens, Junior ABs
- 15 established All Blacks, i.e. earned 10 caps, entitled to be contracted wholly and exclusively to NZRU, thereby enabling Super Rugby franchise to contract another player in their place. This measure would ensure our very best stay in the country whilst limiting the cost placed on the NZRU.
- Think central contract system.
  
 

My 5 Point Plan to Revive Otago Rugby

The Otago Rugby Football Union looks set to be sentenced to death on Friday, 2 March 2012 at 4pm after years of mismanagement and debt.

However, it won't be the end for one of New Zealand's proudest rugby regions with the New Zealand Rugby Union looking after the grassroots and community rugby in Dunedin and the surrounding Otago region for this season at least.


And there will be a new entity to fill the gap left by the old Otago Rugby Football Union - no the Dunedin and Otago region will not be absorbed by the nearby Southland or Canterbury regions.

So how should entity function to ensure this disaster never occurs again and also can be successful and competitive against the likes of Canterbury and Auckland?

Here is my 5 point plan to revive the Blue and Gold.

1. Establishment of a Licensing Trust
With the massive clampdown on binge drinking amongst rowdy University of Otago students, this is probably the best time for the Dunedin City Council and Otago Regional Council to establish a regional licensing trust that issues licenses for alcohol and pokies machines in the region. This system has worked very well in Southland and has helped to fund sport in the region and with councillors looking to cut down to the misbehaviour of drunk students, what better way to do it than making liquor sale licenses harder to obtain in the region.

2. Lead the Call for an Amateur/Semi-Pro ITM Cup
With Super Rugby now clearly the professional rugby competition in this country, it is vital that the ITM Cup reverts to an amateur/semi-pro competition especially with other unions including Canterbury, Waikato, Wellington and Auckland also in financial trouble.

Super Rugby franchises should pay the salaries of its players who fail to make the All Blacks when they compete in the ITM Cup - which they must think is beneficial to the development of their players in Super Rugby and an advantage over their Australian counterparts. Contracts could start on 1 November and end on 31 October (around the time the ITM Cup concludes and preparations need to be made for Super Rugby.

And if people think amateur rugby won't sell, look at American college football, the world's most successful and popular amateur sports championship.What pays the way for college football is TV revenue which is worth way more than the ticket gates - which is where we need to price better to get the crowds back.

3. Value for Money Tickets

The model that has made the likes of AirAsia, EasyJet and JetBlue successful and is what Air New Zealand has been emulating with its grabaseat scheme is focusing its energies on value for money - and note there's a difference between cheap and value for money. Rugby in this country needs to make going to games a value for money experience once again. We need new marketing people to promote and price our provincial games better.

This is of pressing importance for future Otago rugby games where crowds in recent times have been on average 10% under capacity - no wonder the union went bust. $10 tickets for adults, $2 for children would be the easiest option although packages should be made for every single game - free drink or snack, etc. After all, Otago's attendance has been historically based on students living off Studylink and their student loans.

4. Scholarship System
There is no doubt that Dunedin and the Otago region's most prized asset is its tertiary education facilities - Otago University is the 2nd best in the country and traditionally a superb university for sport. The Polytechnic is also one of the best in the country and also incorporates the Institute of Sport. Dunedin has also developed its sports facilities in North Dunedin with the new Forsyth Barr Stadium of course the crown jewel.

The University is also fairly wealthy and should restart an initiative to snatch back those emerging rugby players who are now staying in their provinces now that they have the opportunity to play top-class rugby there, i.e. Hawkes Bay, Southland, Manawatu and Taranaki. Maybe a scholarship system tied in with the lure of obtaining a degree after at least 3 years all paid, no student loan tied could do the trick - it's the same system employed by college football in America.

Yes, the university has always been a carrot for our good rugby players but in the good days of Marc Ellis and Jeff Wilson, players obliged to come in. Nowadays, young rugby players have more choice and unfortunately, Otago and the university have been blind to this.

5. Moneyball
Sorry to bring up Michael Lewis' book again but it is so right for this cash-strapped union which has a far smaller cash and population base than the city of Oakland. And the University of Otago has fine Economics and Statistics departments who could analyse every rugby player in New Zealand and send them down to Otago for cheap.

The mantra of Moneyball is not to buy stars, but to buy wins - buy players who have statistically made the most tackles, most line breaks, best kicking range, etc. That's fine given that buying and funding the salaries of the likes of Craig Newby, Nick Evans from North Harbour when they really couldn't afford it might have set the union on the wrong course in the first place. It also could mean the likes of Chris Noakes, Kenny Lynn won't pass through the Otago system and be wasted again.

2 Minutes - 28 February

Otago rugby is dead but Liverpool under Henry definitely isn't.

RIP Otago Rugby Union 1881 - 2012

Rugby died today in Otago.

Actually the Otago Rugby Union died today - rugby is still very much alive in the region thanks to the Highlanders and community rugby will still continue under the guidance of the New Zealand Rugby Union.

The Otago Rugby Union's perilous health had been clear to see all these years with mismanagement of players and funds resulting in debts of $2.35 million - which seems pretty pathetic compared to the debt the likes of Portsmouth and Rangers find themselves in but huge in the scheme of things in New Zealand.

The Otago Rugby Union has been one that has been stuck in past glories, one that never quite figured out how to move with the changes to the provincial game.

The success of Otago rugby in the 1990s was down to the fact that the likes of Hawkes Bay, Southland, Taranaki and Manawatu were in the 2nd division for much of the time and the fact that the most talented emerging rugby players went down to the university to study and play their rugby.

With the advent of professional rugby and the subsequent expansion of the NPC to have pro/semi-pro teams in those regions, suddenly the kids stopped coming to Dunedin to further their rugby career. Otago rugby was now scrapping the barrel with local bit players from a population base that is one of the smallest in the country.

Otago ultimately got relegated from the Premier Division in 2010 and struggled in the Championship Division. Yes, they got players like Buxton Popoali'i and Ben Smith but the rest of the team was a shadow of its former glories.

The fact is Otago rugby board should have seen the signs coming but failed to do much, still priding itself on the university and polytechnic being around for convenience rather than actually trying to use those gifts to boost itself. The team's development stalled.

Chris Noakes epitomises what has gone badly wrong in Dunedin. He studied at Otago Uni and played for University but was underused at his own province. He eventually left for Bay of Plenty to take over the vacant spot left by Mike Delany and impressed resulting in a Highlanders contract. Ironic how Noakes ended up at Dunedin's Super Rugby franchise after leaving one of its servicing home unions. But Noakes isn't the only one.

Remember Hayden Triggs, Michael Witt, Sean Romans?

Yes, other unions have been hit hard financially - the champion Canterbury rugby union itself is in big financial strife following the Christchurch quakes and Super rugby taking precedence, Southland was also on the verge of liquidation and even big timers, Auckland are in financial trouble. But no where has the local game been run so badly than in Dunedin.

My hope is that a new union will emerge and be more frugal and smarter about running the game. The days where 19-year-old future All Blacks coming down to Otago to study and advance their All Black chances have come and gone. It's time to now develop young players from Dunedin, Balclutha and Alexandra in a way that the Hawkes Bay, Manawatu, Canterbury, Waikato and Taranaki unions have done with their rural regions. The fact is there is plenty of talent in the region but the union has been so badly run that players just pass through its gaping holes.      

Liverpool Trophy Drought Over

Ok it may only be the Carling Cup but it's still a trophy at the end of the day - and European football next season which Liverpool missed out on this season.

It also marked the end of one of Liverpool's longest trophy droughts in recent times - the last trophy they won was in August 2006 when they beat Chelsea to win the Community Shield. They came close to Champions League and Premier League glory since then, but after peaking in 2009, Liverpool suffered an alarming decline, at the same time officially losing their mantle as England's most successful football club to their much hated rivals from dirty Manchester.

Perhaps it was apt that after waiting nearly 6 agonizing years for their next trophy that Liverpool fans would have to put up with the most agonizing 120 minutes of the season yet.

Credit to Malky Mackay and Cardiff who were brilliant and deserve a place in the Premier League next season based on this performance. They never gave up even when they were 2-1 down with minutes to go in extra time and deserved their late, late equalizer. In the end, the posts were the Welsh club's worst enemy - two penalties hitting the post in the shootout.

Ultimately, Liverpool deserved to win by dint of their Carling Cup campaign - they did beat Chelsea and Manchester City away en route to the Final. Ok they took the Carling Cup far seriously than those teams this season and had no European football to worry about but any club that makes the Final of a knockout competition deserves plenty of credit for getting there.

Liverpool dominated the game but lacked the cutting edge again up front as they had all season. For all the tips that the Suarez/Carroll duo could offer some variety up front, they looked quite human tonight and Cardiff contained them quite effectively. It was down to Gerrard, Johnson, Adam to provide all the shooting chances before Kuyt belatedly came on for Carroll and scored what should have been Liverpool's winner.

Dirk Kuyt deserved the goal, deserved to score the penalty and deserved this trophy more than any other current Liverpool player, the only one to join after Liverpool's last trophy win, not to win a trophy as a Red. Kuyt had his critics at first as he was brought on as a striker after his goalscoring exploits for Holland and Feyenoord but is now very much a Liverpool legend just for his heart and work ethic.

If Stevie G was Liverpool's heart, the Flying Dutchman is the blood that pumps through it. 

So Liverpool are back amongst the silverware - Kenny Dalglish also wins his first trophy as Liverpool manager since the 1989 FA Cup Final. Back then, that victory was sweet as it came on the back of the Hillsborough tragedy. This one will be just as memorable and hopefully get the Merseyside club on the right course again.

European football will definitely happen next season. Now the goal this season is to win  the FA Cup and get back into the Champions League. Game on!

Who Would Feature in Europe's Super League?

They've been talking about it for years but of course all of it has been really what is, talk.

Unlike rugby, football is run by some really traditional power brokers, unwilling to change the status quo, those who hold firm to "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

And of course football as it is isn't really broke to be honest and a European Super League could ultimately be the worst thing for football, destroying the element of parity that the sport prides itself on.

But what if there was a Europe Super League, a Super rugby version of European football? What would it look like?

It would look like this - a 16 team competition, no relegation or promotion, and the big clubs would bid for places in the league every two seasons. The league can elect to decide which clubs should remain in the competition and which clubs should be replaced.

So in the first season, based on performances of the last 5 years..

Manchester United
Manchester City
Tottenham Hotspur
Chelsea
Juventus
AC Milan
Internazionale
AS Roma
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Olympique Lyonnais
Olympique Marseille
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Benfica
FC Porto

Other bidders:
Zenit St Petersburg - rejected due to fact Russian League is summer league and distance between St Petersburg and other teams

Glasgow Rangers - facing bankruptcy

Glasgow Celtic - Scottish football too weak

Ajax Amsterdam - Dutch football too weak

Liverpool - performances at home haven't been good enough. Club not at its best form.

Arsenal - see Liverpool.

Oscars Time! Special

Ok it's not sport but the annual Academy Awards does feel a bit like the Super Bowl with all the hype and everyone having an opinion on who or what film they think should win - or who should have been or shouldn't have been nominated for an Oscar.

One gripe I certainly had with this year's Oscars is the exclusion of Drive featuring the ever brilliant Ryan Gosling in one of his finest performances ever and Carey Mulligan from the running for Best Motion Picture despite the category now allowed to have 10 nominees.

Anyway, here are the big players of this year's Oscars..

My predictions on 

Best Picture - The Artist, surely the best film of 2011 and one of the best films ever made. Yes it was made with a technique from another era which makes it a bit more unique but that's beside the point. If films were made to captivate and entertain the audience, the Artist certainly did fulfills these with tremendous aplomb.

Best Actor in Leading Role - Jean Dujardin. Without him the Artist wouldn't be what it is.

Best Actress in Leading Role - Meryl Streep. Iron Lady would be quite forgettable without her. 

Best Actress in Supporting Role - Berenice Bejo for the Artist.

Directing - Martin Scorsese for Hugo. A film from the legendary filmmaker's heart. 

   

Will Pompey Survive the Season?

In May 2008, the city of Portsmouth is drowned in a sea of blue as the city celebrated the club's FA Cup win ending a trophy drought lasting 58 years.

Fast forward to February 2011 and the same club appears to be drowning in a sea of its own debt, with a huge anchor, a winding up order from the HMRC, tied to its feet.

The club is now a huge shadow of itself and is struggling to field a full-strength side for its current league campaign. Of pressing concern is whether the club will survive to finish the season. The chief executive officer has been laid off along with 32 other backroom staff members at the club.

Players like Nwankwo Kanu, Jamie Ashdown, Ricardo Rocha, all who were part of the victorious FA Cup team in 2007/08 have been asked to defer their wages and accept a pay cut.

The situation is reminiscent of Leeds United's decline earlier this century although it looks like Portsmouth are in a far deeper trouble. 

Relegation to League One is quite likely to happen pending the outcome of the HMRC appeal hearing on 20 February 2012 - the club have already been docked 10 points for entering administration for the 2nd time in a matter of seasons and could lose another 10 points.

Fratton Park - dilapidated and in need of a wrecking ball

Portsmouth's decline is perhaps a symbol of the old crumbling buy-the-best-stars-to-win model that many football clubs still use to this day. Portsmouth tried to buy success and got a bit of it but then paid the price for spending more than what they had, obviously badly hit by the credit crunch of 2008.

Perhaps, every football club owner and manager should have a look at Moneyball - movie and book - and learn about buying wins rather than players, i.e. investing in players who have better goal scoring stats, metres, crosses, etc. rather than just big names who will cost more just because of their name. Not every club has the finances of Man City and Chelsea - and who knows how long those finances will last?

Perhaps the new Portsmouth will adopt this model given now that they have nothing to lose - they can't get any worse than this.

Top 5 Chokes Ever in Cricket

The Black Caps choked big time last night against South Africa snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and handing them an unexpected victory in the Twenty20 series.

But is it one of the biggest chokes in cricket ever?

Here are 4 others which feature the South Africans quite prominently -

1992 Cricket World Cup semifinal, South Africa v England, Sydney
Ok it wasn't quite a choke and the South Africans were quite unlucky to have rain force them to score 22 runs from 1 ball instead of 13. But it was still a bit of a choke. England won to advance to the Final where they lost to Imran Khan's Pakistan.

2006 2nd Ashes Test, England v Australia, Adelaide
England had batted superbly in their first innings as they sought to bounce back from their opening test defeat  with Paul Collingwood scoring a double ton and Kevin Pietersen chipping in with 150. They started with a 551 run lead but mediocre bowling from England and typical gritty Aussie batting ensured the Aussies finished only 38 runs behind. The match seemed set for a draw until England's nemesis, Shane Warne, struck  with a magical spell of 32-12-49-4 to reduce England to 129 all out and set Australia 168 runs to seal an unlikely win on a thrilling final day.

2003 Cricket World Cup group stage, South Africa v Sri Lanka, Durban
Another great South African choke and probably the most painful in their history as it resulted in them being eliminated from their own World Cup. A horrible miscalculation by captain, Shaun Pollock, meant the Proteas ran one run short on their last ball and therefore, missed out on the Super Six stage by one run. Pollock was dropped as captain thereafter.


Watch South Africa v Sri Lanka 2003 World Cup - The D/L cockup in Sports  |  View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

1999 Cricket World Cup semifinal, Australia v South Africa, Birmingham
Arguably the most infamous choke in cricket so far. And again South Africa were the chokers. South Africa were finishing strongly in a game they needed to win to advance to the Final - a draw would send Australia through due to their win over South Africa in the Super Six stage. Allan Donald will always be remembered as a great fast bowler but unfortunately, his running or lack of will also be remembered as it cost South Africa it's best chance of World Cup glory.

And finally..

Could the Premier League be out of the Champions League by March?

It is looking rather grim for Arsenal and Chelsea in what has already been a very dark season for English clubs in Europe.

With Manchester United and Manchester City out of the Champions League by the end of December, it was left to the capital clubs to bear the torch for the Premier League - I won't say England as Arsenal and Chelsea are hardly good representations of England anymore.

Alas, it looks like the torch will be extinguished very shortly as Arsenal and Chelsea have suffered their own Italian tragedies. The Arsenal were annihilated by AC Milan 4-0 at the San Siro, only a few seasons after their historic win there, while a sorry Chelsea were beaten 3-1 by Napoli in a performance that must have been inspired by the host city's own trash problems.

Barring two major miracles back in London, it looks like the Premier League's involvement with this season's Champions League will be over before the end of March leaving the likes of Barcelona, Milan, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich etc. to challenge for a place in the Final in Munich.

Now this is European football after all and not an extension of the Premier League with UEFA branding so this is probably not a bad result for the continent as a whole.

However, after consistently having 3 teams in the semis and at least 1 team in the Final apart from one season (2010), this season has been a rather poor one for the Premier League.

So has the Premier League gone soft? Or have the European leagues just got better?

No, the Premier League hasn't got soft. In fact, the very fact that it has just got tougher and more competitive might mean that clubs aren't quite able to cover home and abroad as well as they might have in recent years. The fight for Champions League spots in the Premier League has never been better with 7 clubs in the running for Europe's elite competition - not bad at all.

Yes, the European leagues have definitely caught up - if they ever needed to. The Serie A, Ligue 1 and Bundesliga have improved and clubs from those leagues are now more adept and experienced with the English clubs. And as usual, Real Madrid and Barcelona continue to set a standard that is on another level from the rest of the world. Surely those two must be favourites for the title now.

And European football as I've alluded to earlier comes in cycles. Every country will have a bad season and often will have a great one thereafter. After all, the Premier League bounced back the season after they didn't have a team in the Final for the first time in 6 years in 2010. They will certainly bounce back after the disappointment this season. The Serie A and Bundesliga have also had horror seasons in Europe in the past.  All bounced back.

So no the Premier League bubble hasn't burst. It is just a hiccup. But at least for Arsenal and Chelsea, it might mean they can concentrate their efforts on making the Champions League again - one of them will surely miss out at this stage.

 

Top 3 Glorious Moments for Sport in Canterbury

A year on from the day of the devastating earthquake that decimated the city of Christchurch as we know it, perhaps it's a good time to remember those fond memories, the good times which this still-beautiful city has had in the past - and will continue to do so in the future.

The Crusaders

Hate them or love them, the Crusaders are undoubtedly New Zealand's most successful sports franchise of modern times - national teams not included. They've won the Super Rugby title in its various guises a record 7 times, 4 of them in their home stadium in Christchurch. They were close to title no. 8 last year despite not playing a single game in Christchurch - a testament to the spirit and toughness of the players which has lived on despite continual retirements and injuries.

Canterbury and the Ranfurly Shield... again!

Ranfurly Shield Defence, 1985

Canterbury may have lost this game to their eternal rivals, Auckland 28-23 but it was still a winner at the full time whistle in what is still regarded as the greatest provincial rugby game ever witnessed in New Zealand. In fact, many credit this game to be the one that kicked off modern rugby as we know it today. The crowd of 52,000 at Lancaster Park is still the largest ever for a provincial game and is unlikely to be surpassed any time soon.

Steve Gurney

Perhaps it's because the Speights Coast-to-Coast is not a standard multisport event that Steve Gurney doesn't quite get the credit he deserves despite being champion 9 times but Christchurch-born Gurney is still a legend regardless and memories of him crossing the line at New Brighton Beach have become part of Christchurch sporting folklore.






In memory of the 185 who died as a result of the Christchurch earthquake on 22 February 2011.

South Africa's Greatest Cricket XI

With the Proteas in the country, it's time to consider the Republic's greatest ever XI.

Here's mine to cover all forms of the game -

Barry Richards
Graeme Smith
Jacques Kallis
Graeme Pollock (captain)
AB de Villiers (wk)
Jonty Rhodes
Mike Procter
Shaun Pollock
Hugh Tayfield
Dale Steyn
Allan Donald

Gone for 4 quicks and Tayfield as slow bowler as he's the best out of an average lot - no way Adams or Boje should be there.

Gone for de Villiers to keep over Boucher as his batting average is better and he's got potential to be the better wicketkeeper than Boucher.

Klusener was average in tests while Wessels wasn't actually a very good player - in there just because he had test experience.

2 Minutes - 20 February

Due to the major news story earlier in the evening from America involving a major engagement, 2 Minutes has been shortened to enable wall-to-wall coverage to continue of this story.

3 Most Memorable (Or Rather Infamous) Press Conferences

The Dereck Chisora v David Haye fight outside the ring may have been memorable for all the wrong reasons - with long bans likely for both of them for taking the game into disrepute, but there have been some rather infamous press conferences in recent memory - memorable for the right and wrong reasons.

Here are 3 other infamous press conference moments..

Italian tries to be angry in German..

Playoffs? What playoffs?

SBW v Tillman

And of course the fight this morning..

2012 Super Rugby Preview

The 2012 Super Rugby season has quietly popped up without many people apart from the players and coaches really noticing it - but yes indeed it does start this weekend and for many rugby fans it's just as well given it comes at the end of one of the longer off-seasons in recent times.

For more detailed follow up and analysis of the 2012 Super rugby season, check out my affiliate, Scotty Donaldson's superrugbytips website - handy as well given I won't be able to blog much later in the season as I'll be overseas for 3 months.

But I might as well give some tips on what will happen for this season - the first Super rugby season post World Cup in which the All Blacks are actually the reigning World Champions. On paper, in means, we may avoid the post World Cup lull that has resulted in initially lower audiences and crowds in New Zealand as we saw in 2004 and 2008.

In fact with rugby and the New Zealand sporting public on a high, we could be set for one of the better starts to the season. While there hasn't been much hype in Wellington due to the fact that the Hurricanes are on paper not going to be very good this season and because they start their season in South Africa, there has been hype elsewhere in the country including in Christchurch which hopes to host its first Super rugby game in nearly 2 years at the revamped Rugby League Park in Addington after of course missing out due to the devastating February earthquake last year.

And of course, the Highlanders will have a new home and will be the first Super rugby side to play most of their home games "indoors" thanks to their new state-of-the-art Forsyth Barr Stadium. Whether it means the Highlanders will turn into the Minnesota Vikings/Indianapolis Colts/New Orleans Saints of Super Rugby remains to be seen and one wonders if the indoor stadium could dilute Southern rugby's traditional values of hard-nosed forward-based rugby now that weather has effectively been taken out of the equation.

As usual, the pundits are all out for the Crusaders with the Blues in 2nd place. The Crusaders again appear to have the pick of the talent and given their form last year as well as the fact they're going to be back in Christchurch again, they must be everyone's favourites. The Blues should be tough but remain as risky a pick as ever - they have All Blacks galore but just don't quite have the panache and finish that the Crusaders have.

The Highlanders look to have the goods to push the Crusaders and Blues after a promising first season under Jamie Joseph and subsequent signings of Andrew Hore, Hosea Gear, Tamati Ellison, amongst many others. However, they are experiencing a bit of a horror injury list at the moment - although given the new format of Super Rugby this might be helpful later on with those players likely to be fresher later on than their peers. Belief is another questionable element here as the Highlanders should have finished in the top 6 but missed out when they appeared to hit the wall at the end.

Which leaves us with the Chiefs and Hurricanes. Dave Rennie has done wonders with Manawatu but needs a season or two to turn the Chiefs around - forward play has never been a strength of Chiefs rugby and work needs to be done there to ensure the talent of the backs is not wasted. One thing to look out for is the development of Aaron Cruden after a star turn at the World Cup as Dan Carter's unexpected deputy. Cruden looks well despite suffering a nasty injury in the Final against France.

As for the Canes, well expectation has been virtually zero with so many stars gone and Mark Hammett's Crusaderization well under way. They have a tough start in South Africa but at least they get that done and dusted for the rest of the season. The problem is that they have so many inexperienced players that it will take a season or two to get the team winning again - which may mean crowd numbers won't be much better than last season's historic franchise low.

What about the Aussies and South Africans? Well, it's difficult to see the Reds maintaining their title challenge with Quade Cooper out till later in the season and now not so much the hot property he was prior to the World Cup. The Rebels could be the surprise team of the season with James O'Connor and Kurtley Beale now there and under the guidance of former Wallabies RWC winning coach Rod McQueen. The Waratahs should be there in the mix but don't expect too much from the Force or Brumbies though.

As for the Saffers, they will continue to be strong and it looks like the Stormers could be the team to beat from the Republic. The Bulls will be there but one wonders how they'll cope without now-Springboks coach Heynecke Meyer and an aging forward pack. The Sharks are a bit like the Waratahs and Blues - perennial playoff contenders and the progress of Pat Lambie will be interesting to see - he needs a big season to show that he can be the Springbok first five in June.

Another surprise package this season could be the Lions. The Currie Cup side won the title for the first time in many years under John Mitchell and it looks like things could be turning for the eternal wooden spooners. Now that the Gauteng side have figured out how to win, confidence is high and perhaps this could be the season where the Lions could challenge for a playoff spot. The same can't be said for the Cheetahs though who could be staring at being substituted by the Southern Kings in the 2013 Super Rugby competition if they can't lift beyond their current mediocrity.

So my tips for the table:
1.Crusaders
2.Stormers
3.Blues
4.Reds
5.Sharks
6.Highlanders
7.Waratahs
8.Rebels
9.Bulls
10.Chiefs
11.Lions
12.Brumbies
13.Hurricanes
14.Force
15.Cheetahs

Crusaders v Stormers final at Rugby League Park in Addington