2013 Super Rugby Preview

Another season of Super Rugby is upon us with the Aussie teams set to kick things off a week earlier than the other teams due to the British & Irish Lions tour later in the year.

There is plenty to look forward to and plenty of questions to be asked.

Can the Crusaders go on without McCaw?

Can the Highlanders finally make the playoffs with their All Black rich squad?

Can the Chiefs win the title again without SBW?

Can the Blues regain respectability under John Kirwan?

Can the Brumbies make the playoffs now they have David Pocock?

Can the Kings perform credibly in their first season under the limelight?

Can the Stormers make it fourth time lucky?

Naturally being based in New Zealand, I'm better placed to comment on the state of the teams based here compared to those in South Africa and Australia. However, I can say that I do have a vested interest in what is happening in the 10 teams overseas - here are my thoughts.

SOUTH AFRICA

Southern Kings are set for a spanking on paper - but could cause the odd surprise

The biggest story obviously is the controversial disposal of Johannesburg's Lions in favour of the Eastern Cape's Southern Kings. For a long time, SARU has wanted a team based in the heart of black South Africa and finally have one after several failed attempts. The biggest concern is how competitive the side will be in its first season and you could probably bet the mortgage on the Kings finishing dead last. I don't think the Kings will have cricket scores put past them too often this season as there is some quality in Luke Watson, Steven Sykes, Nicolas Vergallo and promising Western Province first five, Demeteri Catrakilis, but like all new teams in their first season, they will find it tough going against the more experienced sides.

Can the Cheetahs defend as well as Johan Goosen leads the backs?

The other South African sides are where we expect them to be at this stage - the Cheetahs are enigmatic as usual although their porous defence means they're effectively the 4th best South African team, but the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers have all strengthened and should be in the running for the playoffs at the end of the season. The key for the likes of the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls will be to try and get as much home advantage as they can - as we saw with the Sharks last season, the long travel to and fro in a short space of time will take its toll in the end.

Hougaard and the Bulls may need to be more unconventional like their pink jerseys to return to a championship

The Bulls are South Africa's answer to the Crusaders - they are by far the most successful team to come out of the Republic and have put in place a factory of players who will be very good for South African rugby for years to come, along of course the regular players like Francois Hougaard and Pierre Spies. However, the problem with the Bulls is that their conventional style of rugby is no longer really a head-scratcher for opposition teams - they will need to take some risks if they are to win title number 4.

Francois Steyn is back for a full season with the Sharks

The Sharks should also be thereabouts and if key players including the returning Frans Steyn stays injury-free, a second tilt at the title in two years is not out of the reckoning. However, history has never been kind in the season after a team that finishes runners-up in the Final - expectations certainly are a factor as they would be inflated after the close  shave the Sharks had the season before. Nevertheless, the Sharks do have a stable squad and have strengthened pretty well. They're always in the race for the playoffs so it would be a big surprise not to see them there.

Habana must do more if he is to win his third career Super Rugby title

The Stormers remain South Africa's best chance at the title, but must overcome their jitters in the post season - twice now they've secured the top spot and home advantage for a significant period of the playoffs, and twice they've blown their opportunities against seasoned travellers and playoff teams, Crusaders and Sharks. With Western Province finally overcoming their hoodoo and winning the Currie Cup last season, one wonders if the bulk of that team can repeat that result at Super Rugby level. Otherwise, Alister Coetzee's Stormers could be known as Super Rugby's greatest chokers.

My tip: Stormers to head the Sharks and Bulls and possibly sow up top spot on the ladder. Given we've had two teams win their maiden Super Rugby titles in the last 2 seasons, surely, it'll be the Stormers' time this time round? The Bulls could miss out altogether if they can't get anything from their last two games after the bye against the Stormers and Sharks. The Cheetahs and Kings will probably be at the wrong side of the ladder.

AUSTRALIA
It is quite difficult to make of the shape of Australian rugby at this point of time. Consensus is that it is not quite at its strongest and an Australian team will be in the playoffs but only by dint of being winner of what is probably the weakest conference out of the three nations.

However, this is a make-or-break year for the Wallabies with the British & Irish Lions coming in the winter and keen on avenging their series defeat in 2001. So expect the Australian teams to be quite keen to start firing once they get the opportunity to kick the season off ahead of the other teams.

David Pocock being put through the paces at Brumbies HQ - is this the year he overtakes McCaw as no. 1 no. 7?

There have been some big moves around the big island with David Pocock crossing the desert from Perth to join Jake White's great Brumbies revival in Canberra, while Scott Higginbotham has moved from Brisbane to help make the Melbourne Rebels Australia's best chance of Super Rugby glory.

Folau will be key to getting back the Waratahs fans through the turnstiles in 2013

And then of course, there's the Waratahs who will be out to do some major PR work after a disastrous 2012 on and off the field. The Waratahs are certainly not one of the most popular teams on the Super Rugby circuit and new coach, Michael Cheika has a hard task to keep them relevant against the resurgent Rebels and Brumbies and ever-favourite Reds. He will be hoping that league/AFL star, Israel Folau will start his rugby union career on fire and help  the Waratahs get back into playoff contention.

Folau was  a great rugby league player and I think he has the potential to emulate the likes of Lote Tuqiri, Wendell Sailor, Mat Rogers and Sonny Bill Williams in making the transition between 13 and 15 men rugby like water off a duck's back. Realising that potential is quite a difficult thing although Folau looks quite keen to put aside a forgettable few years in AFL behind him - God knows why he made the switch in the first place anyway.

The Force will sadly have to get used to more scenes like this

It's difficult to know what to expect from the Force who seem to have stood still since the hoohah that surrounded their launch in time for the 2006 Super 15 season. They've continued to lose players of international quality and have ended up becoming a team of journeymen. It is amazing to think that their fan base is still pretty strong despite the mediocrity of the results in the last seasons. The Force can play attractive rugby but they don't really have the quality to make a push for the playoffs.

The Melbourne Rebels need Kurtley Beale to fire if they're to make the next step up

The Rebels as I said before have definitely strengthened having added Scott Higginbotham to their impressive collection of current Wallabies stars which includes James O'Connor and Kurtley Beale. The rest of the team is still generally quite average especially up front and then of course, there's that mental wall they have to overcome being still a very young outfit.

Reds and Brumbies are favourites for the Australian conference title

The Brumbies and Reds by contrast have experience of the playoffs and are Australia's favourites for the playoffs. The Brumbies made great strides last year under Jake White and were unlucky not to be in the playoffs having been pipped to the post by the Reds. David Pocock's arrival has been a big win for the Canberra franchise though who are eager to return to the glory days earlier this century when they were essentially the Wallabies side.

Reds fans will be hoping this motley crew fires when they get together again from April

However, the Reds will also be strong even despite a change in coach from Ewen McKenzie to Richard Graham - McKenzie is still involved with the Reds albeit as a technical director - and question marks over Quade Cooper's commitment to rugby union. Will Genia will be eager to get back to rugby in April after a long spell on the sidelines. The Reds had an average season as champions last year, not helped by the absence of Quade Cooper for much of the season. Yet they still made the playoffs as Australian conference winners, but were clearly second best to an in-form Sharks team.

With Cooper and Genia now back, the Reds will be looking at returning to the smashing form of 2011 that saw them finish top of the Super Rugby ladder and eventually finish as champions.

My tip: The Brumbies could take out the Australian competition this year with the Reds facing a big gap between their last 2 games due to the Lions series and the unfortunate timing of one of their byes - but expect that strong form in the run-in once Genia returns from injury to hopefully partner Quade Cooper. The break for the Lions will probably hurt the Rebels the most who will play their last game of the season against a Highlanders team who should be chasing a playoff spot. Waratahs and Force to round off the Aussie sides.

NEW ZEALAND

Chiefs will be strong in 2013 despite loss of Taumololo and SBW

The Chiefs finally broke New Zealand's drought last year - and did it in quite some style. Whether they can do it again remains to be seen even if they do have the same squad plus more. The loss of Sonny Bill Williams should be alleviated somewhat by the depth the Chiefs have in midfield as well as the strength they have in the forwards. The Chiefs have a horrendous finish to their season with two away games to the Crusaders and Blues - although they appear to have the wood on their big rivals across the Bombays in recent times; this will have a huge bearing on where they finish on the ladder. If the Chiefs are to retain their title, they need to finish top of the table; they were somewhat helped by the Stormers' latest choke at home.

Is Ma'a Nonu the final piece in the Highlanders championship puzzle?

The Highlanders on paper seem to be New Zealand's next strongest side thanks to their plethora of All Blacks, e.g. Tony Woodcock, Brad Thorn, Colin Slade, Hosea Gear, Ma'a Nonu, Ben and Aaron Smith. This is in addition to the fairly strong squad that Jamie Joseph has built over the last couple of years in the deep south. But the fact remains that the Highlanders have been dogged by some big injuries to key players in the last few seasons - Colin Slade and Ben Smith, and haven't made the playoffs in 11 years. They've already lost Tamati Ellison and Declan O'Donnell for a significant part of the season. To achieve great success, the Highlanders must overcome their playoff hoodoo - they could look no further than the Reds who overcame their long playoff drought and eventually became Super Rugby champions that same season. However, they do have a horrendous end to the season with the Crusaders being their last game at home before embarking on a road trip to Wellington and Melbourne  to wrap up the season.

Matt Todd needs a big year in Richie McCaw's absence

The Crusaders should be thereabouts but I don't think they're as strong as they have been in recent times - a lot of experienced players will not feature for the red and blacks this season, e.g. Ben Franks has gone to the Hurricanes, Quentin Macdonald to the Chiefs and of course, Richie McCaw is on sabbatical for 6 months and may return later in the season. But even so, expect this well-oiled machine to be in the running for the playoffs although I dare say as a wildcard. Having said that, they do have a nice finish to the season with all their last 3 games of the season being in the South Island and 2 in Christchurch so missing the playoffs would be an upset.

Julian Savea is now key to the Hurricanes try-scoring machine with Cory Jane out for the season

The Hurricanes made enormous strides last season and were unlucky to miss out in what was a tight race for the playoffs. However, they have been dealt a blow already with the loss of influential outside back, Cory Jane for the season. While the Canes do have depth in the backs, Jane would have been a pivotal figure in the Hurricanes' plays this season. With the New Zealand conference shaping up to be the toughest conference, the NFC East of Super Rugby this season, the Hurricanes will need some luck as well as be unbeaten at home to make the playoffs. Expectations also will be higher this season after what happened last year.

JK is hoping Charles Piutau has a great breakout 2013 for the Blues 

Finally, the Blues. While John Kirwan has said the right things and tried to bring in the personnel, the fact of the matter is that in a very tough conference, the Blues will probably miss out. They just won't have the quality and experience that the other New Zealand sides possess even if they should improve on last year's diabolical performance. 2014 is probably the Blues' main target - mind you how many times have we said that the season for the Blues is already a right-off before it has even started - but with low expectations this season, the Blues could be at their most dangerous as they always have been in their backs.

My Tip: Chiefs to win conference ahead of the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Blues. A bit of luck could see the Crusaders, Highlanders and Hurricanes all make the playoffs as wildcards but it is quite an unlikely scenario given the way the fixtures are set up - the South African sides would have to be abject away from home, and the New Zealand sides brilliant away from home for this to happen but it's not as far fetched as it seems. Blues to finish last in the conference but that could still mean a top 10 finish in the final ladder which wouldn't be a bad thing after last season's 12th.

My tip for the ladder?
1.Stormers
2.Chiefs
3.Crusaders
4.Highlanders
5.Sharks
6.Brumbies
7.Reds
8.Bulls
9.Hurricanes
10.Rebels
11.Blues
12.Waratahs
13.Cheetahs
14.Force
15.Kings

Stormers v Chiefs for the title, with Stormers to win their maiden Super Rugby title.