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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Can Cardiff City Survive in the Premier League?


After years of heartbreak in the playoffs, Cardiff has finally made it to the Premier League. Spurred on by the disappointment of late season collapses and despair in sudden death playoff matches, Cardiff City charged their way to the lead of the Championship in November and never looked back.

Led by inspirational former Welsh international, Craig Bellamy and manager, Malky Mackay, Cardiff's dream came true with a handful of games to spare. The Championship's best team had been heavily reformed since Malky arrived from Watford and was given plenty of Malaysian capital to spend on players.
 
Malky Mackay with Malaysian tycoon owner, Tan Seri  Dato Vincent Tan

The most obvious testament to Cardiff's latest revival is the controversial change of the club's home colours from blue to red. According to owner Tan Sri Dato Vincent Tan, it was hoped that the change to the lucky colour of Chinese would bring the team better luck on the field - citing the successes of those other red clubs, Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool. 

Indeed, it worked with Cardiff breaking their club record for most consecutive wins - 10 - early in the campaign. And with Premier League status secure, the change to red looks set to be made permanent and secure for a while - although not everyone is happy about that including long time former supporter, Scott Thomas: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2013/apr/17/cardiff-city-promoted-died-last-summer

But can Wales' second only Premier League club secure its long-term place in the Premier League or will it fade away like plenty of its opponents in this season's Championship have in the past? 

Can Cardiff emulate their neighbours down the road in Swansea?
Like their rivals in Swansea, Cardiff appear financially very strong and should be able to spend well in the transfer window on players, possibly capitalizing on the plight of whoever goes down from the Premier League - or whoever fails to make it back up to the big time for that matter. 

On the other hand, as QPR have shown this season, money certainly cannot guarantee you Premier League survival. 

With manager Malky Mackay, I cannot see Cardiff going into the panic spending spree that QPR went through in the January transfer window. If Cardiff find themselves in a position where they cannot stay up, I see them consolidating for the future, possibly selling one or two good players and then prepare themselves for promotion back to the Premier League the following season. 

But I think Malky Mackay will relish his first opportunity to coach at Premier League level and he could possibly emulate the success of Paul Lambert and Brendan Rodgers in their first seasons in the top flight. Mackay did wonders helping turn Watford into the side they are today - the reason why Tan Sri Dato Vincent Tan hired him to end Cardiff's long absence from the top flight two seasons ago. 

Tactically, he is very astute and this was evident last season in the Carling Cup Final against Liverpool which they were very unlucky to lose to on penalties. And this tactical nous and his blueprint for success have been evident with Cardiff this season. I expect none of this to change next season even with better quality opposition - Norwich, Southampton and Swansea did the same and look set to extend their stay in the Premier League. 

The only downside if Mackay's Cardiff do well in their first season in the top flight is that Mackay himself could end up being a target for other Premier League clubs looking to get out of a rut. 

So I think I will stick my head out there and say that Cardiff will survive and establish themselves like Bolton, Fulham, Stoke, Wigan, Norwich and Swansea have in recent seasons. Mackay will be a revelation in the top flight and Cardiff's success could continue the Welsh football revelation and quite possibly start a bit of a revelation for Malaysian football fans - fellow Malaysian tycoon owner, Tony Fernandes' involvement with QPR has managed to get more Malaysians behind that club. 

Who else will follow Cardiff? As it stands, Steve Bruce's Hull City looks like it is in the best position to gain automatic promotion and a return to the Premier League, with Gianfranco Zola's Watford faltering at the finish but likely to be in the playoffs as they are quite far ahead of the tight scrap between Brighton, Crystal Palace, Bolton, Leicester, Middlesbrough and Nottingham Forest. And as Cardiff know, those playoffs can be a bit of a lottery. 


 

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