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Thursday, May 9, 2013

Premier League Home Stretch: Who Will Be Relegated?


The Premier League season is in its final stages and while the destination of the league trophy has been long decided, there is plenty to play for at this the business end of the season.

Sir Alex Ferguson's resignation yesterday has also added spice to the finish of Manchester United's season with the Red Devils probably desperate to ensure the tenure of the greatest manager in their history ends on a very high note.

Thankfully, Swansea and West Brom have long clinched their Premier League status for the season so Fergie's chances of finishing 2 from 2 are pretty good - especially when one of them is before the trophy ceremony at Old Trafford.



Elsewhere though, Premier League survival is the aim of the day. It appears that Aston Villa have found their form at the right time of the season and having reach 40 points are now likely to stay in the Premier League - and if results go their way might even sneak into the top ten on the final day - an unlikely thought a couple of weeks ago.

In fact, it appears that the impending relegation shootout at Villa Park on the last day of the season might fizzle into a bit like the last day of school especially if results on the weekend go against Wigan and they fail to beat Arsenal at the Emirates a couple of days after their FA Cup Final appearance.



Wigan's failure to beat Swansea at home days before they walk out onto Wembley Stadium might possibly be the first nail in the coffin for the brave Latics - on paper, it was the "easiest" game for the Latics on their home straight. However, their defence, as it has been all season, let them down and against a polished Michael Laudrup-managed Swansea with nothing to play for other than their highest ever league finish, they let a win slip through their hands.

They must now play in the FA Cup Final against Manchester City and witness their fellow contenders for survival play their games on Sunday before going to the Emirates to face Champions League chasing Arsenal before their last home game against Aston Villa.

A draw for Sunderland, Southampton, Newcastle and Norwich will extend the gap between Wigan and those clubs outside the drop zone to 4 points, meaning that Wigan would have go to the Emirates to get a draw just to stay in the race to stay up. Even then, they will be 3 points from safety and dependent on a win against Aston Villa in their last match of the season.

A lot of pressure on a very talented but small Wigan side who may have taken on a bit too much more this season than they can handle.

In previous seasons, Wigan have had the luxury of being out of cup competitions at this time of the year and being able to fully concentrate on maintaining their Premier League status. This season, their involvement in the FA Cup, while wonderful for the competition, has meant Wigan have had far more games to play in a short space of time at the end of the season and that appears to have taken a toll on Roberto Martinez's team for all their endeavour and courage.



Even if Wigan do eventually go down, Martinez's job prospects should be safe whether he stays at Wigan or ends up going to Everton or Swansea depending on who goes where. Wigan are a small club which have punched above their weight during their 7 years so far in the top flight yet they have never spent above their means and that is why even if they go down, I expect them to go back up very quickly with the squad they have - although their involvement in European competition next season as FA Cup finalists might hurt their push for promotion as we've seen with Ipswich, Millwall and Birmingham City in recent seasons.

So, Norwich, Newcastle, Sunderland and Southampton will all stay up by the dint of the fact that their form earlier in the season was better than those at the bottom rather than their form at the end of the season and can probably breath a sigh of relief knowing their Premier League status is safe for at least another season.

My tips -
QPR 0-0 Newcastle, Sunderland 1-1 Southampton, Aston Villa 1-1 Chelsea, Norwich 1-1 West Brom, Arsenal 1-0 Wigan

FA Cup Final result - Man City 2-1 Wigan




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