Are the All Blacks in Decline?

The All Blacks lost a tight encounter against the Springboks 27-25 in Johannesburg overnight. It was the first loss the ABs had suffered to the Boks since Steve Hansen took over as head coach and only their 2nd loss in 3 seasons.

Granted it was also a "dead rubber" with the Rugby Championship already sewn up in favour of the All Blacks - although when is a test match between the All Blacks and its greatest Southern Hemisphere rivals, South Africa and Australia ever a dead rubber?

In the end, that might have played into the minds of an All Blacks side as they entered the noisy cauldron of Ellis Park against a very motivated Springboks side who were looking for their first win against the ABs in 3 years - hard to believe really given these are the two best sides in world rugby right now on the evidence of this encounter.

Shock horror, the ABs have lost and questions will be asked about what went wrong.

Indeed, with 3 quarters of the international season finished now, there are a couple things of concern that should be addressed in the Northern Hemisphere tour and less than a year out from the World Cup.

I think the All Blacks, the reigning World Champions have entered a decline this season on evidence of the performances so far this season. But it's not the sort of "decline" that is terminal or entails a crisis. It's more of a natural decline that one expects from all great sporting sides and athletes after a period of greatness - Michael Schumacher, Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Michael Phelps, Manchester United, Liverpool, Barcelona have all experienced it - a point where athletes start to perform below the astronomical standards that they've set in previous seasons.

I don't think the ABs have quite performed as well as they did in 2013 - besides that test against the Wallabies at Eden Park, there are times where the ABs have had to fight back or withstand great pressure from resurgent Springboks and English sides.

A couple of issues - the veterans who have been the ABs' spine for so long are definitely starting to show a bit of their age, e.g. Tony Woodcock and Dan Carter's absence due to injury, while Richie McCaw and Conrad Smith aren't quite the sprightly athlete that they were. Ma'a Nonu has also had an injury disrupted season and there are now doubts as to whether he'll be around for the World Cup defence next year with French clubs calling.  

Fortunately, the likes of Kieran Read, Brodie Retallick, Julian Savea, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Israel Dagg have picked up from their stunning recent form of the last couple of seasons and continue to be the stars of the team. The rise of Beauden Barrett and Malakai Fekitoa has also given selectors heart - These guys must surely be the most important players at next year's World Cup rather than Richie or Dan although Read and Dagg aside, these guys lack World Cup experience. Mind you, it might be a good thing not having the burden of past World Cups on their shoulders like previous World Cup squads.

There are two key positions where depth and coverage is a big concern, i.e. halfback and hooker. Aaron Smith, Dane Coles and Keven Mealamu are excellent on the field but there's a real risk that the All Blacks could find themselves in a hole if anyone of those three get injured. Thankfully there is still time for Tawera Kerr-Barlow, TJ Perenara, Nathan Harris and Liam Coltman to allay those concerns.

However, the ABs face a slightly perilous position compared to 2011 when the ABs had great depth in those positions. As the past has shown, blooding rookies at Rugby World Cup time particularly in such specialist positions has been the ABs' downfall.

In the end, this loss could very well be a blip and if recent history continues, the ABs will bounce back in Brisbane and thrash the Wallabies and get back to winning ways.  

In the meantime though, hopefully this charity loss to the Boks doesn't come back to bite the ABs next year.