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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

What Will Cricket Look Like in 10 Years Time?



- More Double Tons
- More Games with Aggregate Scores of 600 plus
- Average Run Rate of 7.5

Canberra's petite Manuka Oval was blessed on Tuesday afternoon. Not only did the rain stay away, they also got to see Chris Gayle score the first ever double ton in World Cup cricket history.

As you'd expect from a double ton scored within 50 overs, it was full of big sixes and fireworks - a typical innings from the experienced West Indian opener who is the last of a generation of great West Indian batsmen.

The previous highest score in a World Cup match was by South Africa's current batting coach, Gary Kirsten who scored 188 against UAE in 1996, 19 years ago.

Back in 1996, coloured clothing in World Cup cricket was only 4 years old and Twenty20 cricket  was only a twinkle in the sky. Indeed, it was New Zealand's very own Cricket Max that was being touted as the new short form of the game at the time.

19 years later, Twenty20 cricket has transformed the game in many ways, expected and unexpected.

The array of shots and run rates at this Cricket World Cup and in test matches has definitely increased since Twenty20's arrival in the middle of the noughties - an expected outcome really when you consider the effect of one day cricket on test matches in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

What many cricket fans - and the ICC - didn't expect was to see a rise in popularity of the 50 over game, thought to be doomed once Twenty20 cricket was in full blossom. Indeed, the saturation of Twenty20 cricket, still consider hit and giggle cricket by purists, has actually resulted in a renaissance for 50 over cricket which still has the twists, length and drama of test cricket which Twenty20 cricket lacks.

Indeed, 50 over cricket's future looks set in stone now with the success of the 2011 and 2015 Cricket World Cups and the ICC set to take advantage of 50 over cricket's renaissance with a rebrand and changes to make the years between World Cups more relevant, i.e. rebranding ODI Cricket as World Cup Cricket and putting more weight on the bi/tri-series towards the World Cup.

The improving form of Ireland and Zimbabwe could mean a further expansion to ensure those two nations along with the rest of the 2nd tier nations, i.e. Netherlands, Scotland, Namibia, UAE, Afghanistan, Canada etc. all have a chance to improve and make the step up.

As to the game itself, expect double tons to be more common place especially in games between test nations as the quality of wickets improve and batsmen are more adept to playing just about anything. With that, expect more games with aggregate scores of 600 plus - 300 is the new par score as they say.

Remember that game where South Africa and Australia both got 400? Expect to see more of those in the next 10 years particularly on the fast bouncy wickets and smaller grounds. Global warming will have a role to play as the drier and hotter climes means wickets have more time to dry and harden up.

Finally, expect par run rates to be 7.50 going up to 8. Even required run rates of 10 might be quite gettable.

On paper, the game clearly looks set to favour the batsmen over the bowlers. However, the quality of the wickets as well as the growing knowledge of groundsmen worldwide means that may not necessarily be the case. Yes, the dust bowls of the subcontinent will remain so but they are not as benign as a road as they once were.

Could we see a World Cup Final where both sides score 300? It seems more realistic than it was even 5 years ago.

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