NFL Championship Round Preview

Lucas Oil Stadium - venue of the 2012 Super Bowl

Before I continue, another big milestone - 11,000 reads on this blog.

So here we are.. it's virtually the semifinal stage when it comes to the Super Bowl but winning this weekend means you win some form of silverware - reward for winning your respective championship/conference.

AFC Championship Game - 
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 9am NZT

Two teams who are as similar to each other as ebony and ivory. One team tries to win a game by scoring more points than the opposition while the other stops the opposition from scoring points.

The Patriots defence may have been the 2nd worst in the NFL this season but has so far started the playoffs quite impressively, effectively stopping the heavy pass rush of the Denver Broncos. Pro Bowl linebacker, Pat Chung, made a huge difference to the Pats D.  

Perhaps then, they do have a chance against the Ravens whose offence was neither here nor there last weekend. Ray Rice in the rush game was well shaded by Arian Foster last weekend and the wide receivers were well covered by the secondary too. Joe Flacco was also easy sack fodder.

As for the offence, plenty has been said about Tom Brady and the form the offence is in right now. It is easily the most innovative and effective in the league at the moment but after weeks of fairly easy opposition, the Ravens with Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis in D will be a much different proposition.

It should be a cracker - it probably won't be high scoring but the Ravens aren't shy of scoring spectacular touchdowns especially with Torey Smith and Anquan Boldin in the lineup.

If the Patriots can score plenty of points early, they should win this game. But if the Ravens start well, expect the stuffing to be knocked out by the Pats - it happened in the ill-fated divisional game two seasons ago and the Pats need to be aware of that.

Prediction: Patriots to do it. Just.











NFC Championship Game - 
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 12:30pm

The Giants scored a highly impressive win against the previous favourites, the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. They'll now need to do it again away from home at another ground where the home team has been nearly unbeatable - the 49ers only lost once this season and that was early in the season against the Dallas Cowboys.

However, the San Francisco 49ers defence will be much tougher than the pathetic effort put up by the men from Wisconsin. Patrick Willis is one of many Pro Bowl selections in this quite brilliant defence - a D which has laid the foundations for an offence which can be dangerous at times.

The Giants are definitely the form team of the playoffs. Mind you, so were the Saints before last weekend and the 49ers just about beat them.

With that win too, the 49ers feel that destiny might be in their favour. But the Giants have always had something to say about destiny and with their defence all fit and fighting again, there are plenty of similarities between this year's Giants and the one that won the Super Bowl 4 years ago.

Another cracker - and another low-scorer that could explode in the last quarter just as it did last week.

Prediction: 49ers. It might require the Catch IV.

This means Tom Brady could be playing the team he supported as a boy in the Super Bowl.

 

NFL Divisional Round Review

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

I thought this might be the game of the round and this game certainly delivered right at the death. The 36-32 scoreline doesn't quite reflect the way this game went: for much of the game, defenses were on top of the offense and both Drew Brees and Alex Smith struggled to get their games going.

However, after the high workload of the defenses for 3 quarters, the holes were always going to open up in the last quarter and sure enough they did with 4 lead changes in the last 3 minutes of the game.

When Jimmy Graham scored the Saints' last touchdown, it seemed that the 49ers would pay the high price for not scoring enough points when they turned the Saints' ball over an amazing 5 times. But Frank Gore's running game had come alive again in the 4th quarter and he drove the 49ers to the Saints red zone where Vernon Davis deservedly got the winning touchdown.

It felt like a win in overtime - and it was, with the game going well over the scheduled finishing time and overlapping with the start of the Broncos v Patriots game.

Candlestick Park has long waited for the glory days  to come back to its aging arena since Steve Young pulled the plug on a dynasty begun by the great Joe Montana. When it did, the stadium celebrated in one with the city.

The Saints once again have been entertainers this season but again are out of the running for the Super Bowl. But they should be back next season where they'll be out to try and seal one of the top two spots and ensure they stay at home throughout.

2011 will be remembered as the season Drew Brees became a legend in his own right with the most yards in the season for a quarterback but for now, the sour taste of defeat will hurt this now high-achieving franchise.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
A sharp contrast to the earlier game on the West Coast - and the Broncos' last game of course. This was so one-sided right from the Broncos' first down - the Broncos finished with double digit downs with loss of yardage. Hard to believe this was the Pats' first playoff win since the 2007 AFC Championship game - the game before 'that' Super Bowl.

This was probably as good as the Patriots have ever been in the post-season and certainly this season. Tom Brady's 6 touchdowns was the most by a quarterback in a playoff game while Rob Gronkowski continued his stunning season with a hat-trick of touchdowns. The defence ranked 31st at the end of the regular season looked so at ease against the highly unpredictable Broncos offence.

So dominant was Pat Chung's defence that Tim Tebow was screaming at his offence in the 2nd half after yet another loss of yardage with the ball.

In fact, this was the game he and his fellow tight-ends (including New Orleans' Jimmy Graham) really stamped their mark as the way to go in the league. Aaron Hernandez played running back at times to great effect - he and Gronkowski would actually make great rugby players; they are so athletic for such big men at over 6'5".

As I said earlier, it was a win-win situation for the Broncos and Tim Tebow going into this game. They had already surpassed a nation's expectations by beating the Steelers and any win on the road after this was going to be just take Tebow's name higher. Tebow himself said he was focused on the off-season and becoming a more all-rounded quarterback now he has nailed the job full-time.

Tebow probably knew better than anyone that the Patriots at home in the playoffs were always a hard team to play for such an inexperienced team.

The Patriots now prepare to host the AFC Championship game and earn themselves a shot at redemption in the Super Bowl. Perhaps God is a first and foremost a Pats fan. Hard luck Tebow, but thanks for the memories and being such an inspiration for all of us.  

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

This was an arm-wrestle between two very run-heavy and rugged teams. The Ravens were expected to steam-roll the inexperienced Texans at home but credit to the Texans defence which has been one of the best in the league all season and pegged back Joe Flacco and his offence after letting the Ravens get off to a flying start.

Arian Foster certainly beat Ray Rice in the battle of the running backs and his running game kept the Texans in the game. However, the Ravens managed to contain the passing game of the Texans forcing the inexperienced TJ Yates to revert to big shots down the field. When Yates tried them, they were picked off by the excellent Ravens secondary like taking candy from a baby.

Credit to Yates who has done a sterling job despite being the 3rd string quarterback at the Texans and looks like he may have a future as starting quarterback at the Texans. The Texans can look back on a historic first season and look forward to more success with JJ Watt and co set to be around for a while.

Meanwhile, the never-aging, Ray Lewis and Ravens can look forward to a championship game and a chance to play in only their second Super Bowl.

















New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

For the 2nd weekend in a row, the playoff weekend would end with a stunning upset.

The Packers who were 16-1 in the regular season and at home were expected to be too tough for a mercurial but in-form Giants game. Boy did the Giants rip the script to shreds right from the word go.

For All Blacks fans, this had shades of that 2003 RWC semifinal where the Wallabies through a clever and effective game upset the much favoured All Blacks. Indeed, that night, the attack was shot to pieces and the same was done in this game. Hakeem Nicks ran through the Packers like a knife through paper just like Mortlock through the ABs that fateful night too.

Absolutely nothing went right for Aaron Rodgers and his offence which must have left their hands in butter during the bye week. The Giants fed off those turnovers with glee, continuing to expose and beat up what was already a weak secondary - something that must be sorted out by the Packers in the off-season if they are to add to their recent Super Bowl glory in the future.

The Giants deservedly won and are surely the most dangerous team in the playoffs at the moment. The 49ers probably won't give them as many takeaways as the Packers did in this game but the Giants like the Saints are a confident side and the 49ers just beat them. But Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul must feel they can upset the potential bro v bro Super Bowl.

As for the Packers, this loss is a new low for the franchise and one they'd want to try and put aside quickly. They wowed the league with their offense but ultimately fell flat when it mattered thanks to a defence that never really improved throughout the season.

Meanwhile, the two contenders everyone expected to be MVP - Brees and Rodgers - are now out of the playoffs, paving the way for the effervescent Tom Brady to win the title should the Patriots win. 

So the two spots in the Super Bowl will be contested next weekend as follows:

AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 9am NZT

NFC Championship Game
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 12pm

So could Tom Brady be taking on the team he supported as a boy? Will John be taking on Jim for the Super Bowl? Will it be revenge time for Tom Brady against Eli Manning?

It's all heating up here and after the Packers were knocked out, suddenly it's wide open as to who will be world champion.



 

 

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Firstly, I stand corrected; somehow ESPN have managed to get the FOX games which they didn't use to in previous years. It means ALL playoff games will be shown to New Zealand viewers.

After a wild wildcard weekend, the top 2 teams from each conference of the regular season (at least) begin their run to the Super Bowl this weekend.



Sunday
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers, 10:30am

The Saints are definitely the form team in the NFL at the moment but they now face what is potentially their toughest test yet - a trip away to San Francisco in January to face the most rugged team in the NFL outside the AFC.






The two things on the Saints' side are their recent experience in playoff football - the 49ers haven't been in the playoffs for 10 seasons until this - and the fact that teams with one of the best defensive records in the regular season don't often progress far in the playoffs - take the Atlanta Falcons last season and the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, for instance.

The 49ers have had a brilliant season and first-season coach, Jim Harbaugh has done wonders for this once mighty franchise and the future is looking bright again. If they are to beat the Saints, they'll have to rely on the same defensive qualities and running game that got them here.

Inside the Superdome, the Saints are virtually unbeatable but away from it with the elements a factor, the Saints are a bit more earthly. But Drew Brees is playing so well right now that they seem like a team with destiny in sight and peaking at the right time of the season.

Prediction: Saints to win and it could be surprisingly comfortable. 

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots, 2pm

Tim Tebow has done it again eh? The Steelers thought they got the Broncos at the right time but alas the team from Denver realised they were in the playoffs and played as apt.

The fact is any win from here on will be better than the last as not only does it obviously get the Broncos closer to the Super Bowl, it would have been a result no one would have predicted with the odds still highly stacked against them.

Quite frankly it would be stupendous if the Broncos beat the Patriots at home. The Patriots may have lost their last two home playoff games but surely won't lose a third in a row. They also have the edge of having witnessed what the Broncos could do to the Steelers and prepare for them having had the bye last weekend.

As for the Broncos? Well they just need to keep doing what they've been doing and believing in themselves. It's been a remarkable run for Tim Tebow win or lose this weekend - although most of the American media are just hoping it could continue to Baltimore or Houston the following weekend.

Prediction: Patriots to end the Tebow dream run. And it could be quite comfortable.

Monday
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, 7am

Two very rugged sides with powerful running games take on each other with the Ravens playing their first home playoff game in a long while. The Ravens have been awesome at home and it would be quite an upset if the Texans with their inexperienced third string quarterback, TJ Yates win here.

The Texans have achieved their goal for the season; making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They've achieved what would have been their next goal: winning a playoff game for the first time in franchise history. Now is time for the next goal: a Super Bowl appearance and naturally the challenge just gets harder. But lose this weekend, and the Texans will be a better side for it.

In fact, it is the Ravens with more to lose - home advantage and with the Steelers out, they have become  hot favourites to win the AFC Championship.

Expect a lot of big hits and injuries with Rice v Foster being the main contest to watch.

Prediction: Ravens to win quite comfortably.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers, 10:30am

It's Act 2 of the New Yorkers v the Pack. It's also Act 2 of Eli Manning v Lambeau Field for a Super Bowl spot; Manning of course played Brett Favre's Packers for the 2007 NFC Championship title.

The Packers were a bit lucky to win Act 1 this season at the Meadowlands and the Giants will be out for revenge where it hurts most. And the defence is in excellent form too - which may not bode well for the injury-ravaged offense linesmen and Aaron Rodgers.


The Packers D is still struggling at this stage of the season - however, it was said to be "struggling" at this stage last year and the Pack still won the Super Bowl. And the Pack have also had the bye week to fix the issues that prevented them from going 16-0 in the regular season.

Prediction: Packers to win. Just.

2012 NFL Wildcard Round Review

All the home teams may have won this weekend but it was still quite hard work for the winners with the visitors creating plenty of excitement throughout.  


Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Deep in the 4th quarter of the Bengals v Texans game, the Texans will deservedly win this game and advance their season further.

After an even first half, a brilliant intercept touchdown by Texan JJ Watt definitely changed the game in favour of Houston.

Their excellent defence and running game totally dominated the Bengals in the 2nd half and Dalton is set to lose his first game at Reliant Stadium - he was 3-0 at this venue as a quarterback at high school and college going into this game.

Chin up, Bengals fans though. They've had a season to be proud of, given the rookies they have in the offence and the future is looking very bright in Cincinnati. Dalton and Green have been amazing in their debut season and Jerome Simpson has been sublime.

Anyway, the result means the Baltimore Ravens will play the Houston Texans in Baltimore next weekend.


Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

The Detroit Lions scored 28 points and 412 yards in this game. By most accounts, that would win you most playoff games. Unless you're playing the Saints who now have the record for most yards in a playoff game - 619 and counting. Naturally that has resulted in the Saints just missing out on a half-century and a comfortable win - aggregate score of 83 (unheard of in the NFL in January).

Incredible to think that the Lions scored with their very first drive of the game - quite an effective one too, led 14-10 at half-time and looked like they finally figured out how to beat the Saints secondary with their high-passing game and the tall timber of Schefter, Pettigrew and of course Megatron, Calvin Johnson. In fact Megatron had an outstanding game for the Lions - 12 receptions, 211 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It's just that the Saints had the experience, the ability to adjust and ultimately, the better running game than the Lions. It was that running game in the 2nd half that effectively killed off the Lions, especially when it came to 4th down and short. The Saints converted those with aplomb like they had all season and with that took control of a game which they dropped twice in the 1st half.

No shame losing to this Saints side who are a bit like the Barcelona of American football. This Saints offense is so explosive and talented and it should be considered a privillege to watch this team and its quarterback at their very best.

Furthermore, given the recent history of the Lions, this should be a season the people of Detroit should be very proud of. They were beaten by the better team but their never-say-die attitude fostered by coach Jim Schwartz has won them a lot of admiration from the rest of the NFL. And with such a young squad the good days should be back in the Motor City.

Anyway, the Lions can sit back and reflect on a season they can be proud of while the Saints now go to San Francisco to take on a much tougher and rugged team. Will Brees and the Saints be able to put 500 plus yards on a 49ers side that has only conceded one rushing touchdown all season? We shall see.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Surprised at the way this game blew out but ultimately the Giants deserved to win by the final scoreline. After an ineffective 1st half against Atlanta's rugged defence, they took control of the game with their old time wrecking balls, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Eli Manning, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks suddenly came to life just as Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White were shut down by Pierre-Paul and his merry henchmen.

It means the Giants get another chance to beat the Packers albeit this time at Lambeau Field while the Falcons have to ponder a third consecutive playoff loss in 4 years. The Falcons are a good team but they are not quite a Super Bowl contender yet and won't be until they have options to take off the load on Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Matt Ryan is a great quarterback but the Falcons are still a bit limited on ammunition.

As for the Giants, they showed that they're in the same vein of form that we know the Giants can produce. And let's not forget the 2007 NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field when the Giants upset Brett Favre's fairytale ending before upseting another fairytale story a few weeks later.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

I must have been one of the few non Broncos fans to tip a Broncos win. Obviously I was banking on Tebowtime making a big return in the first weekend of the playoffs and against the Pittsburgh Steelers who only just missed out on a bye.

Tebowtime has always been exciting and this was no doubt the most exciting game of the weekend. The Broncos had to strike early, Tebow had to take the big shots for them to have any chance of upsetting the Steelers.

And they did exactly that in the first half. They raced away to a 14 point half-time lead.

The Steelers naturally came back even with Big Ben not at 100% and making critical mistakes in the pocket. Their wide receivers, Mike Wallace and Jericho Cotchery helped somewhat to negate Big Ben's inability to have any flow with his playmaking.

However, the Broncos wide receivers even with the loss of Eric Decker made huge plays, caught the big shots when they mattered and won. Demaryius Thomas was quite impressive and is becoming one of the better wide receivers in the league.

Ironic thought? Tebow scored one of his highest yardage - 316 yards - against arguably one of the top 3 defensive teams in the NFL.      

So the Steelers season is over and Big Ben can now rest his dodgy ankle - not winning the AFC North title would turn out to be quite costly. Meanwhile, the Tebow machine keeps going and goes on the road to New England where Tebow takes on Brady for the second time this season.

Preview of Weekend 1 of the NFL Playoffs

We've gone through the sprint of the regular season - along with the added bonus of a lockout this year. But we're here at last. We're only 5 weekends away from the Super Bowl and there's 3 weekends to decide who'll feature in Indianapolis in February.

The first weekend of the NFL playoffs kicks off with the wildcards taking on the lowest ranked division winners starting Sunday morning (NZ time). All but one game will be shown on New Zealand TV courtesy of ESPN - that one being the Falcons at Giants game as that is on the FOX network which you'd think Sky NZ with its News Corp links would pick up on the regular Sky Sports channels.

Saturday

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, 10:30am 
Both teams go into this historic playoff fixture - the first playoff game in Texans history and the first playoff game at Reliant Stadium that isn't the Super Bowl - having lost their last games.

However, the Texans did rest many stars against the Titans and still only just lost by a point. They also now have the option of the experienced Jake Delhomme who took the Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl in 2004, should TJ Yates fail.

The Bengals struggled to beat a good side (Ravens and Steelers) this season and they somehow lost to the Texans earlier in the season from a winning position. This will be the biggest game of their lives yet for young stars, Andy Dalton and AJ Green.  

Prediction: Texans to win - they're at home and that defence is still one of the meanest in the NFL and is suited to playoff football.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints, 2pm
This is my pick of the games this weekend. Both teams have quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 5,000 yards this season and are playing extremely well at the moment.

This game has the potential to be a touchdown shootout if the Lions can learn from their game last month and match the Saints in every facet - a hard task but at least they've had the experience of playing the Saints already and have a knack of learning things fast this year.

The Lions do have Ndamukong Suh available for this game unlike last time - he is a huge presence on the field and gives that Lions defence the X-factor needed to take on the incredible Saints offence under the Superdome.

Prediction: Saints to win a very high scoring game. 

Sunday
Atlanta Falcons at NY Giants, 7am
Two very physical football teams take on each other at what will be Metlife Stadium's first ever playoff game. It's hard to say which Giants side will turn up and this current Falcons team do not look like they will throw away games like the Cowboys did.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons are due a first ever playoff win and they have a great chance if they can control the game with their offence and wear down the Giants' athletic defensive ends. Expect to see a very physical running game with Michael Turner getting plenty of carries.

However, there is always the Eli Manning factor in the playoffs as all Patriots and Packers fans are aware of. He is extremely calm and skilled when the stakes are sky high - some of his best throws have been made when the game is very much on the line.

Prediction: Tough call. Might go for the Falcons as they are due that first playoff win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, 10:30am   
A glance at this and you'd think surely the Steelers. But they do have some issues in the offence with Big Ben not quite 100% and their best running back, Rashard Mendenhall out for the season with ligament damage.

The Broncos have had the same issues they've had in the last few weeks - a quarterback learning the game and with not the best throwing arm but is intelligent enough to know his limitations and play to his strengths.

The "God factor" may have disappeared in the last three games but there were signs in that last game against Kansas City Chiefs that the team are back to doing what they do best - giving themselves a chance and keeping the score low.

The Steelers haven't been setting scoring records in their last few games and this could play into the hands of the Broncos at home, in their first playoff game in years and with a defence that is still one of the best.

Prediction: Going to go for an upset. Broncos to win in the last quarter. Tebowtime goes on the road to Foxborough for Brady v Tebow Round 2.

If my predictions are right, week 2 of the playoffs will look like this:

(all times NZ time)


Sunday
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers, 10:30am
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots, 2pm

Monday
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens, 7am
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers, 10:30am

BRING IT ON!