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Thursday, May 15, 2014

Can Atletico Overcome Barcelona To Become La Liga Champion?


It has been hailed as the most important domestic football league game in history. For the only third time in La Liga history, the two title contenders have played each other in the final game of the season for the title.

Indeed, not since Liverpool played Arsenal for the title back in 1989 have we seen the title in a major European league come down to a match on the very last day between the title protagonists.

While the scenario of having to get a result from the Camp Nou may not be the most ideal for Atletico fans - and Spanish football fans keen to see a side other than Real or Barca win the title, it is definitely the scenario that this season, undoubtedly the best La Liga season of the last 20 years, definitely deserved.

While 2014 has not been a vintage year for Barcelona so far, they have somehow managed to stay right in the title mix and despite not winning in 3 weeks now, they are only 3 points behind leaders Atletico Madrid and are the only team who can deny the Rojiblancos their first title since 1996.

The permutations are simple for both sides.

A Barcelona win and they will win the title - they will go level on points with Atletico Madrid but will win the tie breaker as will end up with the better head-to-head having drawn 0-0 in the reverse fixture earlier in the year.

A draw is all that Atletico need to win the title - and they'll be backed by the fact that they achieved a 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou in the heat of a Champions League quarterfinal earlier this season.

The La Liga title race which for so long was between Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona has eventually become a race of survival with Real Madrid's form dropping off dramatically after their 3-0 romp at the Allianz Arena against Bayern Munich to the point that they're mathematically no longer a chance of winning the title - Carlo Ancelotti effectively conceded the title before their game at Celta Vigo which finished in a 2-0 defeat, an error which he may rue following the failure of Atletico and Barca to win their games.

Atletico and Barca's form has really only been marginally better - with Barca probably the only unbeaten side out of both, even if they were uninspiring draws at home to Getafe and away to Elche, sides fighting for survival in the top flight.

Atletico's form definitely seems to have taken a hit since they overcame Chelsea in the semifinals - they suffered a 2-0 loss to Levante, definitely a hangover result, and missed Diego Costa in a 1-1 draw at home against Malaga; had they beaten Malaga they would have been champions last weekend.

Diego Costa should be available for the game against Barcelona at the Camp Nou and that will definitely boost Atletico immeasurably as they aim to cap off what will be a memorable season for their longsuffering fans.

It has to be said that confidence wise, Atletico probably have the edge over Barcelona - it is difficult to imagine Barcelona keeping their cards to their chest with such insipid draws against Getafe and Elche - the rot had set in since their loss to Real Sociedad and Valencia, and they were quite lucky against a naive Athletic Bilbao at home.

Barcelona do have the carrot of winning the title for their deceased former coach, Tito but it seems the emotion of being associated with him affected them greatly against Getafe and Elche.

And of course, Atletico can count on that result earlier in April where they more than held their own at the Camp Nou and were unlucky not to have won.

More importantly, Atletico Madrid don't actually need to win the game and can afford to play very tight and hit on the counter-attack with the likes of Raul Garcia, Arda Turan and Diego Costa - this has been Barcelona's Achilles heel this season.

Ultimately, much as I do like Barca, I feel that Atletico Madrid deserve to win the title and will get the result they need on Saturday night. A Barca title win may be a fitting tribute to the late Tito Vilanova but other than that, the win will feel very hollow for a team that is definitely a shadow of itself, and will flatter to deceive.

Whatever happens and whoever you cheer on, this is one game of football you must watch.

The French and Italian leagues also wrap up this weekend. While there is nothing to play for in Italy with relegation, European spots and the championship decided, there is still the last Champions League and survival spots to be decided in France.

St Etienne host already relegated Ajaccio, aiming for a win and a slip up by Lille at Lorient to snatch the last Champions League spot. At the other end of the table, Sochaux (18th) hosts Evian (17th) looking for the win to move out of the bottom 3 on the last day and seal their Ligue 1 survival.

It's going to be a cracking Saturday night!

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