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Monday, March 12, 2012

Can the Canes, Highlanders and Chiefs Keep Up this Glory Run?

Just to show that New Zealand rugby is alive and very much kicking everyone in its path away, the likes of the Highlanders, Chiefs and even the much-maligned Hurricanes are leading the way with 3 rounds played in this year's Super Rugby competition. Meanwhile, the traditional powerhouses of Auckland and Canterbury, the Blues and Crusaders respectively find themselves in the wrong half of the table.

In fact, its the Highlanders leading the New Zealand conference,who must be inspired by the fact they're playing in New Zealand's flashest, newest and best stadium at the moment with crowds well in excess of Carisbrook's averages over the last 10 years. They looked like they've built on the potential shown last season; Jamie Joseph's first in charge of the southern franchise and with some big signings like All Blacks, Andrew Hore and Hosea Gear, and former All Black and Hurricane utility back, Tamati Ellison, the Highlanders have never had it better even with the injuries they've already suffered.

The trouble is: the injuries they've already suffered. As evident in the first three games, the Highlanders under Jamie Joseph are playing a very fast, physical brand of rugby. Great when you're under a roof, great early on in the season. The question is can they maintain it through the season; or rather do they have enough players to maintain it through the season? There is no doubt there will be player absences between now and July and the Highlanders' depth will be key to determining if this challenge is for real or whether the challenge will peter out like it did towards the end of last season when the Highlanders clearly hit the wall against the Lions, Western Force, Blues and Waratahs.

But let's just enjoy the rugby the Highlanders are playing right now because it's probably some of the best the region has ever seen.

Anyway, the Highlanders will be travelling on the 6:50am flight to Wellington shortly to take on another surprise package of the season - the Hurricanes.

Ok, like most people, I tipped the Canes to be the worst New Zealand team - and they probably still will take that honour, but they might not finish as low down the table as we might have thought now after a highly successful tour of South Africa - have you seen how many South Africans live in Perth?

By the way here's a bow to "one" of my favourite South African families from the Street City Church, Erik and the Andersen family who just moved to Little South Africa from Wellington.

Anyway, the Hurricanes must now show that they can perform when the heat is on at home against a fellow New Zealand franchise in the NFC East-like New Zealand conference of the Super rugby competition; it could be argued that the Hurricanes performed well away from home because the heat is off them and they're underdogs anyway. It is vital they do in order to get the crowds back to Westpac Stadium.

The Highlanders will be a tough first-up test though and the Hurricanes pack isn't one of the strongest. It will be quite an even game but one that could prove to be a marker for both sides for the rest of the season.

The question is, even if the Hurricanes get up and win, can they sustain a challenge to make it to the Finals? Like the Highlanders, they play an abrasive, aggressive, fast brand of rugby that will surely takes it toll on the players and the Hurricanes probably have the worst depth in the country at the moment. Injuries to the tight forwards could prove devastating to any chance of the Hurricanes competing in the playoffs - their tight forwards as they are already are quite inexperienced having lost the likes of Neemia Tialata and John Schwalger over the off-season.

Unfortunately, much as the start has been great, the Hurricanes will probably be last in the NZ conference - which is not something to be shameful of really given how tight it is and the changes at the team in the off-season - but I think they might still finish in the top ten which is not a bad achievement.

Finally, the Chiefs, undoubtedly the most dangerous team in New Zealand at the moment - two wins against the favourites, Crusaders and Blues, has gotta earn you that title. Injuries to key players like Leila Masaga and Brendon Leonard along with prop, Ben Afeaki, could have been devastating - as it showed in the last stages of their season opener against the Highlanders. But the Chiefs appear to have weathered the storm - in fact they seem to be a better side because of it, as it has meant some very good young stars have emerged, i.e. Tawera Kerr-Barlow, a young halfback who has certainly raised eyebrows with his performance and might even be mentioned as an All Black as early as June.

Heck, their tight forwards are actually rather good too and did extremely well against the Blues and Crusaders' All Black-laden forward packs. That has been an Achilles heel in the past; so if the Chiefs can continue their progress in the tight forwards, they could very well earn New Zealand an extra team in the playoffs. 

Dave Rennie has already done wonders in Mooloo/Steamers country and while they are more likely to miss out (just though), like the Highlanders under Jamie Joseph last season, there is plenty of progress to look forward to.

As for the Blues and Crusaders fans, well don't panic. The Super rugby season is very long and the Crusaders are yet to play a non-Kiwi side; the Blues did over the weekend and actually got a superb win over the tough Bulls in a place they haven't won in 9 years. Furthermore, all the Kiwi teams have to play each other again so the ledger could be squared up at exactly the right time for these teams.

So Crusaders still to win the title, but it could be tight between the Highlanders, Blues and Chiefs - and they could easily snap up all 3 wildcard spots.The Hurricanes may struggle against the other Kiwi teams and become the unlucky losers meaning they will miss out.

*NFC East division in the NFL is often considered the toughest division in the NFL to win with all 4 of the teams, the New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys having won championships multiple times in the past.



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