NFL Third Quarter Time Report - AFC

Four teams on 9-3 - one of them isn't going to win the division and will have to go and play a team with a worse record.

This is the AFC season - consistent with the trend of the last couple of seasons really.

No team has yet secured a playoff spot although the Patriots are probably the closest to achieving that, with the easiest schedule comprising of the Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos away, and Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins at home.

The Patriots should beat the Redskins, Bills and Dolphins but I'm a bit wary of taking on the Broncos given the way Tim Tebow appears immune to losing at this point of time. But more on that later.

To the Gulf Coast we go.

The Texans have to go to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals but after that they play the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts away and finish off with the Tennessee Titans at home.

If the Saints beat the Titans and the Texans' incredible D can out-muscle the young Bengals in Cinci, it's all over rover in the AFC South with the Texans into the playoffs as division champs for the first time ever. Even if they don't beat the Bengals, with Carolina and Indianapolis to come, they should still nail a playoff spot as division winners.

Sorry love this photo...

Nevertheless, I'm tipping the Texans to win all their remaining games simply because of that D which is more than making up for the injury problems in the offense - they remind me of the All Blacks towards the end of the Rugby World Cup; a team won even though they didn't have a first-five because their forward pack and outside backs more than made up for the loss of Dan Carter there.

In fact the QB situation in Houston is eerily like the All Blacks' first five woes in October, Carter = Schaub, Slade = Leinart, Cruden = Yates, Donald = Clemens?  

The AFC North has undoubtedly been the toughest division this season in the NFL - on the field and in the standings. It looks like the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers (both on 9-3) will battle it out for the division title; the runners-up will definitely earn a playoff berth as a wildcard - possibly the best ranked wildcard.

Baltimore host Indianapolis, go to San Diego, host Cleveland and go to Cincinnati while Pittsburgh host Cleveland, go to San Francisco, host St Louis and finish off at Cleveland.

You'd have to say at worst both teams will lose one game but probably win the other 3.

That Pittsburgh v San Francisco game could be the most brutal game of the season with two very rugged sides taking on each other. I might back the 49ers on this one as they're at home and would have noted this as a statement game - win this and they'll be very confident going into January.  

Baltimore do go to San Diego with a revitalized Philip Rivers on Saturday night but Baltimore's D may be too much for what has been a very weak San Diego team all round.

The young Bengals host the Texans, go to St Louis, host Arizona and Baltimore in their last two games.  They have a great chance of making the playoffs as the last wildcard with two relatively weak sides.

I think that last game hosting Baltimore could be the last NBC Sunday Night Football game of the year and I can see the Bengals beating a Ravens side who would have sealed their place in the playoffs ages ago courtesy of their greatly superior division record.

So that's 3 from the AFC North which is quite deserved as it's probably been the best division in the AFC all season.

Finally, the AFC West which could go down to the wire. Having said that, if the Broncos keep winning - and it doesn't look that winning run will stop at this stage to be quite honest - it could be all over quite quickly.

It also reduces the likelihood that the Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos game will be the last Sunday Night Football game of the season.

Tim Tebow's Broncos (7-5) are also helped by the fact their closest rivals, the Oakland Raiders (7-5) still have to play the perfection chasing Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. They host Detroit and then go to Kansas City and finish off hosting San Diego.

Even the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs (both 5-7) are not out of it. San Diego has games at home against Buffalo and Baltimore and then games away to Detroit and Oakland. Kansas City has to go to New York to play the Jets, host the Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders and go to Denver.





The only trouble is that both sides can only finish 9-7 at best and will be heavily reliant on the Broncos and Raiders hitting a wall at the death. The Chiefs defence would have to produce more miracles against the Packers and Jets too.

Which leaves us with Denver and Oakland. I'm going to go for Denver as they have the easiest run on paper into the playoffs - they host a Cutler-less Chicago and New England, then go to Buffalo on Christmas Day - potential for a blizzard - and finish off at home to Kansas City.

And given how confident Tebow is even with his team down on the scoreboard, I can see the Broncos winning all 4 of their last games - probably in the 4th quarter.

Which means the Patriots would lose their sole game against Denver and win the other 3 against Washington, Miami and Buffalo - I left that late given I hadn't mentioned Denver.

Arian Foster charges the QB-less Texans to numero uno

My Tip from the AFC:
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4, 4-2, 9-3)
#4 Denver Broncos (11-5, 4-2, 9-3)

#6 Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, 3-3, 7-5)
#3 Baltimore Ravens (12-4, 5-1, 9-3)

#2 New England Patriots (12-4, 5-1, 10-2)
#1 Houston Texans (13-3, 6-0, 10-2)